Demographics

The planning of any facility - greenways included - must involve an understanding of who the primary “customers” are and where they are located in the community. In order to serve as a transportation route for lower income individuals without cars, to serve the older population as an exercise route, or to provide convenient and safe recreation for families, one must know the current and future numbers, locations, and growth trends of these demographic groups. While Staunton has recently been changing and improving in many ways, an overview of demographic statistical trends reveals a city confronting challenges. A comparison of the 1990 and 2000 census data shows a declining city population that is growing older, becoming only slightly less racially homogeneous, comprised of a lower percentage of family households, and less economically advantaged than other areas in the region. Additional perspective is gained by comparing Staunton’s percentages and trends to surrounding Augusta County and the entire state.

Age, Household Type, & Race

Table 1 in the Appendix shows some of the most important demographic statistics for the City of Staunton from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census. The table also offers comparisons to Augusta County and the state of Virginia to better understand Staunton’s trends. From 1990 to 2000, Staunton’s population declined 2.5% from 24,461 to 23,853 (see Map 2) - in comparison to Augusta County’s 20.0% increase and Virginia’s 14.4% growth. Changes in the 0-14 and 15-34 age groups are most dramatic and seem to predict further population decline in the city. From 1990 to 2000, the 0-14 group dropped 6.0% in Staunton, but Augusta County and Virginia saw increases of over 14.6%. The 15-34 age group did decrease in all three geographies, but Staunton’s 13.6% decline was much larger than Augusta County’s 5.4% loss and Virginia’s 4.6% decrease. The 15-34 cohort is the prime child-bearing age, so a decline in this group often results in a future decline of the 0-14 cohort and a reduction of total family households.

Any reduction in family households would simply widen an already large gap between Staunton and other areas in this category. In 2000, only 59.6% of Staunton’s households were family households compared to Augusta’s 76.2% and Virginia’s 68.5%. Not only does Staunton have fewer families, but they are smaller too. Staunton’s average household size in 2000 was 2.19 compared to 2.56 and 2.54 for Augusta and Virginia respectively. Map 3 shows Staunton’s average household size by census block for the year 2000. Without dramatic increases in births, the future growth of Staunton will be almost completely dependent on the city’s ability to attract new residents from outside its borders. Staunton’s 60+ age cohort barely changed at all in ten years – decreasing by only four people, less than .1%. This group grew at a 33.5% pace in Augusta County and increased 17.1% in Virginia. However, this oldest age group still makes up a higher percentage of Staunton’s population (22.7%) than in Augusta County (17.8%) or Virginia (15.1%).

Although Staunton’s 16.7% minority population is significantly lower than Virginia’s 27.7%, it is still much higher than Augusta County which is only 5.0% minority. But, the black population is growing at over twice the rate in Augusta County and Virginia than it is in Staunton. The total population of all other races more than tripled in Staunton, giving them a faster growth rate in this area as compared to Virginia, but not quite as high as the rate in Augusta County.

Population Distribution

To properly plan a trail to be maximized for recreational and transportation use, one must understand how the city’s different population groups are dispersed throughout the city. To give a better idea of how the population is spread throughout Staunton, Map 4 shows the city’s population density by census block. The 2000 Census data shows approximately 7,500 people (about 30% of Staunton’s population) live within a 3/4 –mile radius from the Statler Museum just east of Gypsy Hill Park. This 1,250 acre area is only about 10% of the city’s total land area.  Another 20% (4,500 people) are distributed across seven census blocks in the north-central and south-central sections of the city (about 2,900 acres or 23% of the city’s total land area). The other 50% of the population is dispersed throughout the remaining 67% of the city in much lower-density.

Although there is a mix of white and minority populations throughout the city, minority residents seem somewhat more likely to live near the CBD and where older housing predominates (see Map 5 and Map 6). As shown on Map 7 and Map 8, the block groups with the lowest median income are in the city center and several other areas radiating outward – just north of the city center between Donaghe Street and N. Augusta Street, just across the CSX tracks south of the CBD, and stretching west of the city center south of Churchville Avenue and north of Middlebrook Avenue. Most of the older residents seem to be concentrated in three distinct areas of the city – the area west of Churchville Ave. and north of Morris Mill Road, the north-central section of the city bounded by Tams Street / Commerce Road / Woodlee Road, and the area north of Richmond Road at the southeastern entrance to the city (see Map 9).

Recent Trends

Though they give an interesting snapshot of the city in the year 2000, census statistics are only partially reflective of what is happening in Staunton today. Thanks to decades of revitalization efforts and the promise of several projects underway, Staunton’s recognition is growing in the state and around the country. Though they are only projections and not hard numbers, Table 2A  indicates a possible turnaround in the city’s declining population. For Staunton, the U.S. Census Bureau population estimates show a 2001 reduction in the rate of population loss and very slight population gains of .8% and .3% in 2002 and 2003 respectively. However, most of the age groups contributing to this growth are age 55 or older.

Anecdotal evidence from city officials indicates that Staunton is starting to see a significant number of retirees relocating to the area from larger urban regions – particularly Northern Virginia.  Coming from metropolitan localities with bigger budgets and abundant public recreation options, these retirees often have high expectations of the quantity, variety, and quality of recreation facilities. Obviously, estimates and non-scientific observations can be wrong and do not prove a trend, but this is a sign that Staunton may be attracting more new residents – although seemingly not young families.

Development of the Staunton Frontier Trail will not only serve as a welcome recreational amenity for the increasing older population with which walking is very popular, but it will also be attractive to the young families Staunton hopes will relocate to the city. In addition, lower-income residents without cars will have a safer route for walking or biking to key locations.